TYLER MALONE’S OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The Reel Deal

TYLER MALONE’S OSCAR PICKS

Who Will Win & Who Should Win

By Tyler Malone

Winter 2012-2013

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty.

What Should Have Been Nominated: Though it appeared on more critics’ top ten lists than any film but Zero Dark Thirty, P. T. Anderson’s brilliant film The Master was snubbed. Is it because it is (kind of) about Scientology? Or just because Oscar voters don’t have the best taste? Who knows? Who cares? It was a mistake. Especially since some of the other nominees are less than stellar.

What Should Win: The Master should have won. But of what is nominated, I think Argo or Amour are probably the most deserving.

What Will Win: All signs seem to be pointing to Argo.

What Could Still Win: If it doesn’t go to Argo, I think Lincoln has the best chance. But never rule out Zero Dark Thirty either (which, if critics voted, instead of the Academy, would definitely be the frontrunner).

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), and Denzel Washington (Flight).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I think John Hawkes probably deserved a nomination for The Sessions over Denzel Washington for Flight. And Dennis Levant gave one of the top performances of the year, but in the kind of movie that the Academy would sadly never recognize: Holy Motors.

Who Should Win: I would love to say Joaquin Phoenix, because he was absolutely astounding in what I consider the best film of the year, but Daniel Day-Lewis (as always) is just too damned good to be beat.

Who Will Win: Though it happens far less often than it should, in this category the person who should win almost certainly will win: Daniel Day-Lewis.

Who Could Still Win: If Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t win, it will be the biggest surprise of the night. Let me put it this way: there’s a greater chance that Daniel Day-Lewis will show up in assless chaps than that he will go home “just happy to be nominated.”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Nominees: Jessica Chastian (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), and Naomi Watts (The Impossible).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel Weisz gave a perfect performance in The Deep Blue Sea, but I fear it came out too early in the year, and too few people saw the film. Also, if we’re going for the child star thing, though Quvenzhané Wallis was great in Beasts of the Southern Wild, I was enraptured by the performance Kara Hayward gave in Moonrise Kingdom (along with her male co-lead Jared Gilman).

Who Should Win: It really should probably go to Emmanuelle Riva for her work in Amour or Jessica Chastain for her work in Zero Dark Thirty, both were pitch perfect in their respective roles.

Who Will Win: For reasons I confess to not really understanding, apparently Jennifer Lawrence is a big frontrunner.

Who Could Still Win: Riva and Chastain both have a shot: Riva because she’s the oldest actress ever nominated, and earned the honor not just for her phenomenal performance in Amour,  but for a career of equally great performances; and Chastain because she is unquestionably the best young actress working today.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), and Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I would have been happy to see Javier Bardem nominated for his villainous role in Skyfall.

Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master.

Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG award, and currently looks like the frontrunner, but this is one of those wide open fields.

Who Could Still Win: Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, so you can’t rule him out. Alan Arkin could ride a wave of good vibes toward Argo (after Affleck got snubbed in the director category). And I still have my fingers crossed, maybe foolishly, that Philip Seymour Hoffman has a chance. (But watch, since De Niro is the only one I didn’t mention here, he’ll probably win it. Hah.)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), and Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Nicole Kidman was nominated for both the Golden Globe and the SAG for her work in Paperboy, but I still haven’t seen that movie yet, so I don’t know if I’d think she was overlooked here or not.

Who Should Win: Amy Adams.

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway. Even the army of Hathahaters out there probably won’t be able to stop her momentum.

Who Could Still Win: If it doesn’t go to Hathaway, it will go to Sally Field.

BEST DIRECTING

The Nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: The obvious directors who were overlooked were Kathryn Bigelow, who won a few years ago, for the inferior The Hurt Locker, and Ben Affleck, whose film will likely win Best Picture this year. I’ve been a Ben Affleck apologist for years, and I’m finally happy he’s getting his dues (even if he’s still getting snubbed in the director’s category). Yes, I’m a little ashamed that the Academy snubbed him, when he so obviously deserved at least a nom here, but the fact that they snubbed him has only helped Argo‘s chances of winning best picture. The other snub, perhaps less obvious, but even more egregious, is not nominating P. T. Anderson, who in my humble opinion is the greatest and most exciting director working today. Do I have to keep saying it? The Master was a masterpiece.

Who Should Win: I think only two of the nominees even deserved to be nominated: Michael Haneke and Steven Spielberg. I think of those two, Haneke should win.

Who Will Win: Probably Spielberg because he’s, well, Spielberg, and the actual best directors of the year were overlooked and not even nominated.

Who Could Still Win: Even though I strongly disliked Life of Pi, there’s been buzz around his potential to win here if Argo takes Best Picture. Michael Haneke could also benefit from a split vote.

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

The Nominees: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom), Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty), John Gatins (Flight), Michael Haneke (Amour), and Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I get that it’s becoming annoying, but I have to keep saying it: The Master should have been nominated here too.

Who Should Win: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola I think wrote the most original script of what is nominated here.

Who Will Win: Tarantino’s doing very well this awards season in this category, so the money is probably on him, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Haneke will actually pull off a slight upset here.

Who Could Still Win: They all have a chance, but if Flight wins, I will turn off the television and be grumpy for at least 24 to 48 hours.

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

The Nominees: Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Tony Kushner (Lincoln), David Magee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), and Chris Terrio (Argo).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I’d have definitely nominated the script for Killing Them Softly based on the book Cogan’s Trade.

Who Should Win: Of these nominees, I’d say probably Tony Kushner for Lincoln.

Who Will Win: Probably Kushner.

Who Could Still Win: It could easily go to Argo, and that would be a good predictor as to whether Argo will end up winning best picture.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Nominees: Roger Deakins (Skyfall), Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln), Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina), Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi), and Robert Richardson (Django Unchained).

What Should Have Been Nominated: Mihai Malaimare, Jr. for–what else?–The Master.

What Should Win: I kind of wish Deakins would somehow pull of a victory here.

What Will Win: Even though I didn’t like the film, I’d have to put my money on Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi.

What Could Still Win: Janusz Kaminski certainly has a chance.

BEST FILM EDITING

The Nominees: Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers (Silver Linings Playbook), William Goldenberg (Argo), Michael Kahn (Lincoln), Tim Squyres (Life of Pi), Dylan Tichenor & William Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Surprise, surprise, I would have loved to see Leslie Jones and Peter McNulty nominated for The Master.

Who Should Win: William Goldenberg. (He’s nominated for both Argo and Zero Dark Thirty.)

Who Will Win: William Goldenberg for Argo.

Who Could Still Win: I don’t see the editors for Silver Linings Playbook or Life of Pi gaining much traction here unless their movies start winning a bunch of the other categories, but between the other three, it’s a toss-up.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Nominees: Rick Carter & Jim Erickson (Lincoln), Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer (Anna Karenina), David Gropman & Anna Pinnock (Life of Pi), Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, & Simon Bright (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), and Eve Stewart & Anna Lynch-Robinson (Les Misérables).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Maybe Prometheus?

Who Should Win: Probably Lincoln.

Who Will Win: My money’s on Lincoln.

Who Could Still Win: Do not rule out Anna Karenina, that’s exactly the kind of movie these awards often go to.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Nominees: Colleen Atwood (Snow White and the Huntsman), Paco Delgado (Les Misérables), Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina), Eiko Ishioka (Mirror Mirror), and Joanna Johnston (Lincoln).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Why is it always period pieces or fantasy films that get nominated here? I don’t think anyone realizes how difficult it must have been to be the costume designer for The Avengers. She clothed ancient Norse gods, angry green monsters, space beings, spies, and ordinary folk. For that task, Alexandra Byrne, who has one an Oscar in this category for her work on Elizabeth: The Golden Age, should have at least been nominated.

Who Should Win: Of what’s nominated, I’d probably give it to Lincoln.

Who Will Win: It usually goes to something like Anna Karenina, so I’d probably put my money there.

Who Could Still Win: Les Misérables also has a solid shot.

BEST MAKEUP

The Nominees: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, & Martin Samuel (Hitchcock), Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater, & Tami Lane (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), and Lisa Westcott & Julie Dartnell (Les Misérables).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Lincoln.

Who Should Win: I suppose The Hobbit.

Who Will Win: The Hobbit.

Who Could Still Win: Les Misérables.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

 

The Nominees: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, & R. Christopher White (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould, & Michael Dawson (Snow White and the Huntsman), Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, & Dan Sudick (The Avengers), Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, & Martin Hill (Prometheus), and Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer & Donald R. Elliott (Life of Pi).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I’m a bit surprised that the visual effects team behind The Dark Knight Rises got the shaft.

Who Should Win: I suppose Life of Pi, even though I wasn’t much of a fan of the film itself. Visually, it was somewhat stunning.

Who Will Win: I imagine this is a pretty simple win for Life of Pi.

Who Could Still Win: I guess The Hobbit has a chance.

BEST SOUND EDITING

The Nominees: Erik Aadahl & Ethan Van der Ryn (Argo), Eugene Gearty & Philip Stockton (Life of Pi), Per Hallberg & Karen Baker Landers (Skyfall), Paul N. J. Ottosson (Zero Dark Thirty), and Wylie Stateman (Django Unchained).

What Should Have Been Nominated: The Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises?

What Should Win: Skyfall.

What Will Win: Skyfall.

What Could Still Win: Zero Dark Thirty.

BEST SOUND MIXING

The Nominees: Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill, & Drew Kunin (Life of Pi), Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, & Stuart Wilson (Skyfall), Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, & Simon Hayes (Les Misérables), Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, & Ronald Judkins (Lincoln), John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, & Jose Antonio Garcia (Argo).

What Should Have Been Nominated: The Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises?

What Should Win: Skyfall.

What Will Win: Les Misérables.

 

What Could Still Win: Skyfall.

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

The Nominees: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi), Alexandre Desplat (Argo), Dario Marianelli (Anna Karenina), Thomas Newman (Skyfall), and John Williams (Lincoln).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Jonny Greenwood’s score for The Master was as haunting and foreboding as his also overlooked score for There Will Be Blood.

Who Should Win: I like Alexandre Desplat the best. (And not only for his great Argo score, but also for his equally wonderful scores for Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom). I just interviewed him, and he’s a fascinating guy.

Who Will Win: Word on the street is that Mychael Danna will win for Pi.

Who Could Still Win: But I still think Alexandre Desplat has a good chance here. (And though John Williams hasn’t won in this category since 1993′s Schindler’s List, he can never really be ruled out as a possible contender.)

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

The Nominees: Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth for “Skyfall” (Skyfall), Mychael Danna & Bombay Jayashri for “Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi), Walter Murphy & Seth MacFarlane for “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” (Ted), J. Ralph for “Before My Time” (Chasing Ice), and Claude-Michael Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer, & Alain Boublil for “Suddenly” (Les Misérables).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Florence + the Machine’s “Breath of Life” from Snow White and the Huntsman would have been a good pick. It also would have been hilariously awesome if Christina Aguilera’s joke title theme song for Casa De Mi Padre were nominated.

Who Should Win: “Skyfall.”

Who Will Win: If it doesn’t go to “Skyfall,” then the Academy is hard of hearing.

Who Could Still Win: Musicals can often do well here, so “Suddenly” has a shot. But not really. It’s “Skyfall” all the way.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Nominees: Amour (Austria), Kon-Tiki (Norway), No (Chile), A Royal Affair (Denmark), and War Witch (Canada).

What Should Have Been Nominated: Holy Motors wasn’t eligible because it wasn’t nominated by its country, but it was my favorite foreign film of the year.

What Should Win: Amour.

What Will Win: Amour.

What Could Still Win: I think Amour has this one in the bag.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Nominees: 5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, and Searching for Sugar Man.

What Should Have Been Nominated: Patience (After Sebald) was a perfect exploration of Sebald’s novel Rings of Saturn.

What Should Win: Of the nominees, I’d say Searching for Sugarman.

What Will Win: Searching for Sugarman is looking good for the win.

What Could Still Win: How to Survive a Plague has some buzz around it too. But really, they’re all good, and they all have a shot.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Nominees: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, and Wreck-It Ralph.

What Should Have Been Nominated: I still haven’t seen it, but I have it on good authority that Consuming Spirits was one of the best films of the year, animated or otherwise.

What Should Win: I think Wreck-It Ralph deserves it.

What Will Win: I think Wreck-It Ralph might take it.

What Could Still Win: I think Disney has it locked up this year, and though it’ll likely be Wreck-It Ralph that clinches the victory, it could also be Frankenweenie or Brave (both also Disney products).

BEST SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY)

The Nominees: Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, and Redemption.

What Should Have Been Nominated: I’ve heard good things about The Education of Mohammed Hussein.

What Should Win: Inocente.

What Will Win: Inocente has a decent amount of buzz.

What Could Still Win: The shorts are always unpredictable. Anything could take it.

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

The Nominees: Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head over Heels, Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare,” and Paperman.

What Should Have Been Nominated: Splatter was a great animated short from this year that got overlooked.

What Should Win: Disney had a strong year, but Paperboy is probably the best thing the company did all year.

What Will Win: It’s always a crapshoot in these categories, but I think Paperboy is sitting pretty with all the buzz it’s drummed up.

What Could Still Win: The other animated short with a lot of buzz around it is the equally moving Adam and Dog. Though the short, as I often say, are always unpredictable, I’d be somewhat surprised if it doesn’t go to either Paperboy or Adam and Dog.

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

The Nominees: Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow, and Henry.

What Should Have Been Nominated: Lynne Ramsey’s short Swimmer was overlooked.

What Should Win: Death of a Shadow.

What Will Win: Death of a Shadow or Curfew maybe?

What Could Still Win: The shorts are always unpredictable. Anything could take it.

Written by Tyler Malone

Photography by Patrick McMullan & Co. for PatrickMcMullan.com

Design by Jillian Mercado

Caption:

82nd Academy Awards – Oscars Setup, Hollywood, Ca ©2010 Patrick McMullan, Sunday, March 7, 2010, Photography by DAVID CROTTY for Patrick McMullan.com

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